RI State Senate Rhode Island is going to be very dull and very boring, however, I see that the State GOP has been very active. Too bad it seems that they are already going to be knocked down by 1 State Senator, unless he decides to file very late........
In the State Senate the GOP filed in 10 seats with 11 candidates. 3/5 incumbents have filed for re-election, while one is running a futile campaign for RI Attorney General and another, Sen. David Bates, for some reason has decided to not file (we might see him file in the late night update).
The district with the Republican that is retiring went for the president by 61% in 2012, so this looks like a Democratic pickup, however the GOP says it has a candidate here in former party chairman Gio Cicione. Before everyone says that Democrats are going to pickup this seat think again, Sen. Bates has been in office for 22 years and the district demographics may have changed. However, Republicans may still come out on top with a victory if Democrats don't press to voters that there has been a change in candidates.
The other district leans Republican, District 35. The president won it with 51%, but that really just means very likely Republican territory in the Northeast. Two Republicans are duking it out for this seat, Kim Page and Mark Gee, I know nothing about them and they will likely hold this seat in November.
The other candidates, besides the incumbents who IMO are all safe, filed in districts 13, 15, 27, 33, and 34.
As for early projections I say that there will be no change in the makeup of the majority. Nevertheless, it does not mean that the GOP will lose Sen. Bates seat or not, but I think that they are at serious risk of losing it. So it could be 32-6. Since I am conservative in projections I will go with it
Prediction as of now: 32-6 (Independent caucusing with GOP) No Change
This analysis was made possible thanks to Daily Kos' maps
State House Predictions The GOP has a better chance at picking up a seat here. Currently Democrats control with a 69-6 majority.
All incumbents have filed for re-election and all but one is a safe bet for re-election IMO. Republican State Rep. Patrica Morgan is facing another difficult re-election fight. She will face a Democrat and a Moderate Party candidate, I think Morgan still wins so I will say her seat Leans Republican at the moment.
Of the other seats without incumbents the GOP got an astonishing 21 challengers here. However, of these challenges only 5 I think have a serious chance of knocking off an incumbent Democrat. The districts in trouble are 35, 39, 41, 44, and 72.
Let's start off with the likeliest of holds for the Democrats. 41 and 44 will likely stay with the Democrats, though one was won by Romney and the other 51% for the President you would think that the seats would be tossups or Lean Republican right? Well no, both incumbents seem to be doing fine and are only mentioned because of the fact that close seats normally lean towards Republicans.
The other three are possible pickup opportunities and I have decided to name one a GOP pickup as of today in my projections. House Districts 35 and 39 have good GOP candidates, however, in 35 I am uncertain how the GOP candidate will do so I am not bullish for either party here. As for 39, I am waiting on who comes out of the primary. District 72 I am going to name a GOP pickup, but it will be a weak one. The President won this district with 54%, but the Democrat Rep. Linda Finn only defeated incumbent Freshman Republican Rep. Daniel Reilly by 100 votes. I think Reilly will take back this seat in 2014.
I project that the Democrats will have a strong hold on the majority here with only one loss. Democratic Majority 68-7
I hope to do a more in depth analysis and whenever any new candidates file I will let you all know!
Review of the Projections:
Democrats retain both majorities.
Senate: 32-6 No Change
House: 68-7 Republicans +1
